Exports of primary products and manufactures of agricultural origin in Argentina

Working papers | 2017 | N 76

Abstract

This work investigates the sources of fluctuations in exports of primary products and manufacturing of agricultural origin in Argentina, using structural VEC models (Structural Vector Error Correction model) and annual data covering the period 1980-2016. To this end, long-term restrictions are imposed on these models and the following structural shocks are identified: real effective exchange rate of the U.S., international prices of raw materials, agricultural GDP and real exchange rate of Argentina (in addition to exports). of these products). The results show that the main sources of fluctuations in exports, after ten years, would be shocks in international prices and in the real exchange rate of the U.S., while the importance of the real exchange rate of Argentina and , especially from supply shocks, would be lower.

JEL classification: C3, F1, Q1