Measuring Inflation Expectations in Argentina: Economic Analysts versus Financial Markets

Authors

  • Patricio J. Temperley Central Bank of Argentina

Keywords:

Inflation expectations, Implicit inflation, Market surveys, Zero-coupon curves

Abstract

Inflation in Argentina over the past few years has been high and volatile, making it increasingly important to forecast it accurately in the short term. This paper compares the predictive power of monthly inflation projections made by economic consultants surveyed by the Central Bank through the Market Expectations Survey (REM) and implicit inflation (break-even) in financial markets, derived from Nelson-Siegel-Svensson models on zero-coupon curves. The results suggest that REM expectations were a better reference for forecasting the evolution of inflation in Argentina in the short term during 2020-2023.

 

Date of presentation: 10-07-2024

Date of approval: 11-26-2024

JEL Classification: E31; E44; E47

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Published

2025-04-01

How to Cite

Temperley, P. J. (2025) “Measuring Inflation Expectations in Argentina: Economic Analysts versus Financial Markets”, Ensayos Económicos, (84), pp. 160–189. available at: https://bcra.ojs.theke.io/ensayos_economicos_bcra/article/view/673 (accessed: 28 April 2025).

Issue

No. 84 (2024): Ensayos Económicos

Section

Articles