Consumer loans dynamics in 2020 in Argentina: an approach using error correction models

Abstract

In order to quantify the effect of the decrease in interest rates on consumer loans in Argentina between March and December 2020, we estimate monthly error correction models, and develop counterfactual scenarios for each of the credit lines. The sample that is used includes the period 2004-2020 and the determinants are the corresponding interest rates and economic activity measures. As an alternative case, we assume that interest rates would have been fixed in 2020 at the values of February that year and/or that the parameters of elasticities that operated in the consumer credit markets were those associated with the pre-COVID-19 context. The counterfactual scenarios implemented within the econometric models suggest that the decline in the interest rate would have cushioned, with different magnitudes throughout 2020, the fall caused by effects of the pandemic both in the credit cards and personal loans real balances.

Date of presentation: 07-27-2022

Date of approval: 02-02-2023

JEL classification: C01, E21, E50