Reference cycle for the Argentine economy, 1960-1982

Abstract

The objective of this study is to construct a reference economic cycle for Argentina in the period 1960-1982, based on a set of more than thirty monthly series that comprise the main areas of economic activity. These series are processed using the X-11 programs of the Bureau of the Census and the “turning point determination” program of the National Bureau of Economic Research in order to achieve deseasonalization and dating of the turning points of each individual series. From the results obtained, diffusion indices are constructed whose points allow the Argentine economic cycle to be chronologically identified. The average duration of the same and the length of its phases are then determined. Finally, it is compared with the historical evolution of the economic situation, the GDP and the results that emerge from other alternative studies.

JEL classification: C22 ; E32