Macroeconomic factors for inflation in Argentina 2013-2019

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the use of the factor analysis in order to identify the role of the relevant macroeconomic variables in driving the inflation. The macroeconomic predictors that usually affect the inflation are summarized using a small number of factors constructed by the principal components. This allows us to identify the crucial role of money growth, inflation expectations and exchange rate in driving the inflation. Then we use these factors to build econometric models to forecast inflation. Specifically, we use univariate and multivariate models such as classical autoregressive, Factor models and FAVAR models. Results of forecasting suggest that models which incorporate more economic information outperform the benchmarks. Furthermore, causality test and impulse response are performed in order to examine the short-run dynamics of inflation to shocks in the principal factors.

Date of presentation: 05-15-2020

Date of approval: 09-15-2020

JEL classification: C38 ; E31 ; E37